Secondo Bruce Hoffman e Fernando Reinares, autori di quest’analisi pubblicata dal Real Instituto Elcano, Al Qaeda, benchè gravemente ferita, avrebbe dimostrato una buona capacità di resilienza e rimarrebbe una minaccia concreta per l’Occidente.
Probabilmente incapace, al momento, di condurre attacchi contro il “nemico lontano” – Stati Uniti ed Europa – avrebbe approfittato delle c.d. “Primavere arabe” per consolidarsi in Nord Africa e focalizzarsi sul “nemico vicino” attaccando alcuni regimi medio-orientali. In attesa di tempi migliori il network avrebbe comunque dimostrato di poter sopravvivere agli attacchi della coalizione occidentale.

[…] Today the conventional wisdom argues that, much like bin Laden’s killing, the Arab Spring has sounded al-Qaeda’s death knell. However, while the mostly non-violent, mass protests of the Arab Spring were successful in overturning hated despots and thus appeared to discredit al-Qaeda’s longstanding message that only violence and jihad could achieve the same ends, in the years since these dramatic developments commenced, evidence has repeatedly come to light of al-Qaeda’s ability to take advantage of the instability and upheaval across these two regions to re-assert its relevance and thereby attempt to revive its waning fortunes.

The final chapter of al-Qaeda’s long and bloody history has yet to be written. Since the September 11 attacks to the killing of bin Laden in 2011, it has proved to be a highly resilient organisation capable of adaptation and adjustment that, despite grievous leadership losses and diminished resources, was still able to harness the energy of its constituent parts and marshal the powerful narrative and ideology that sustains the collective movement, to carry on the struggle proclaimed by bin Laden in 1988. These characteristics ensure both that the final battle against al-Qaeda has not yet been fought and in coming years the movement may assume new and different forms that could not have previously been anticipated or predicted and that therefore will require an entirely different approach and means to finally eliminate it.