Lo Strategic Comment dell’IISS:
(…) Uncertain prognosis
Transnational jihadist terrorism appears to be heading in an uncertain new direction. It seems likely that, over time, major complex plots developed and orchestrated out of Pakistan might diminish in frequency. However, there may be more lower-impact attacks emanating from different places and undertaken by a variety of people, including self-radicalised loners. An important factor in this evolution is the role of jihadist theology. It has developed into a coherent and robust ideology, which, while repudiated by mainstream Islamic opinion, continues to exercise a strong attraction for some. This theology both justifies jihad as an obligation for all Muslims on the basis that Islam is under attack and also sets out the basis upon which the deaths of Muslims can be condoned.
A recent study by the London-based Quillian Foundation has shown that Arabic extremist websites are dominated by a set of jihadist theological principles. Though these principles have often been publicly repudiated by their authors, such as ‘Dr Fadl’, an Egyptian who was one of al-Qaeda’s original leaders, any attempts to question or challenge them within these websites are not tolerated. It is difficult to know in which direction these might lead jihadists in the absence of the leadership and overarching strategy which bin Laden had sought to provide. In light of this developing vacuum, over-reactions by the West to specific terrorist threats and incidents could play into extremists’ hands by enhancing the profiles of a new generation of leaders and ideologues such as Awlaki.