Studi Strategici ed Intelligence… for dummies

Le tecniche strutturate – seconda parte

Published by Silendo on Settembre 30, 2010

Secondo Heuer e Pherson esistono quattro diversi approcci metodologici all’analisi d’intelligence.

Per la precisione (pagg. 22-23): 1) “Expert judgemnt”; 2) “Quantitative methods using expert-generated data”; 3) “Quantitative methods using empirical data” e 4) “Structured analysis”. L’analisi  che potremmo definire “classica” effettuata da esperti specializzati, le analisi che adoperano i metodi quantitativi (di tipo matematico, statistico, economico, ecc.) e, per l’appunto, l’approccio strutturato. Nessuno dei quattro approcci esclude gli altri ma anzi questi si integrano e completano a vicenda.

Nel libro vengono elencate una quarantina di tecniche divise in otto gruppi (quindici create ex novo dagli autori o da questi adattate al settore intelligence). La divisione in gruppi non è rigida in quanto diverse tecniche sono rientrano contemporaneamente in gruppi differenti (si veda il grafico in terza di copertina). Gli autori sottolineano inoltre che le metodologie non sono rigide ma adattabili dagli analisti in base alle proprie esigenze ed esperienze.

Qui di seguito i gruppi e le singole tecniche.

1) Decomposition and Visualization

– Getting Started Checklist

– Customer Checklist

– Issue Redefinition

– Chronologies and Timelines

– Sorting

– Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

– Matrices

– Network Analysis

– Mind Maps and Concept Maps

– Process Maps and Gantt Charts

2) Idea Generation

– Structured Brainstorming

– Virtual Brainstorming

– Nominal Group Techinique

– Starbursting

– Cross-Impact Matrix

– Morphological Analysis

– Quadrant Crunching

3) Scenarios and Indicators

– Scenarios Analysis

– Indicators

– Indicators Validator

4) Hypothesis Generation and Testing

– Hypothesis Generation

– Diagnostic Reasoning

– Analysis of Competing Hypothesis

– Argument Mapping

– Deception Detection

5) Assessment of Cause and Effect

– Key Assumptions Check

– Structured Analogies

– Role Playing

– Red Hat Analysis

– Outside-in Thinking

– Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

– Prediction Markets

6) Challenge Analysis

– Premortem Analysis

– Structured Self-Critique

– What If? Analysis

– High Impact/Low Probabilty Analysis

– Devil’s Advocay

– Red Team Analysis

– Delphi Method

7) Conflict Management

– Adversarial Collaboration

– Structured Debate

8 ) Decision Support

– Complexity Manager

– Decision Matrix

– Force Field Analysis

– continua –

Posted in: Blog
Tagged:
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